主 题：Fluctuating Like China: Business Cycle during Structural Change
Dr. Bo Zhao received his PhD (2012) degree in Economics from the University of Oslo. He is currently an Assistant Professor at the National School of Development, Peking University. Professor Zhao’s research areas include Macroeconomics, Labor Economics and Real Estate Economics. His works appear in top/solid journals such as Review of Economic Dynamics, Economic Theory, Economic Letters, etc.
Business cycle fluctuations in countries undergoing structural transformation differ systematically from business cycles in industrialized countries: we document that countries with large declining agricultural sectors -- including China -- have aggregate employmen1t fluctuations that are smooth and acyclical, while these countries experience volatile and procyclical reallocation of labor between agriculture and non-agriculture. We provide an unified theoretical framework for studying business cycle during structural change. The central aspect of the theory is the modernization of agriculture that occurs during the structural change: agriculture is becoming increasingly capital intensive and less labor intensive as a large traditional sector is crowded out. With a large traditional sector the expansion of manufacturing draws workers from traditional agriculture, ensuring smooth aggregate employment and large reallocation of workers between sectors.